Back Cameron Norrie to keep rolling in Cabos (Thurs 4 Aug)

The tennis season has really arrived at the US Open warm-up, now that the entire tennis world (or at least the top men’s and women’s tours) is back in North America.

After a brief stint on European clay after Wimbledon, all four ATP and WTA events will be played on this side of the pond.

With the men playing in Washington, DC and Cabo San Lucas in Mexico, we have a few games to pick from before Thursday’s action.

Let’s delve into some intriguing matchups on the ATP side of things.

Match times are subject to change. Read tips for watching tennis matches here.

Sebastian Korda (-135) vs. Grigor Dimitrov (+115)

3 p.m. ET

The match that intrigues me most from the American capital is between Sebastian Korda and Grigor Dimitrov. With two players able to get some flashy shots, the fans in attendance should be treated to some fun baseline exchanges.

Ultimately, the young American is the clear favorite for my money, and the -135 line offered on FanDuel isn’t quite enough. While Dimitrov may be the stronger server, once the point is in a baseline exchange, I’ll take Korda with me for a few reasons to win the majority of those points.

First, there is a lot more consistency in his playing. I wouldn’t expect to see nearly as many mistakes (forced or unforced) on his side of the net.

Second, his backhand is firmer than Dimitrov’s. The Bulgarian’s one-handed backhand is prone to casual errors, but can also be rushed a lot more on that wing.

Finally, the ability to return is a major asset on courses played anywhere from medium to medium fast. There is no doubt that Korda is the better player in that regard. Dimitrov has never been strong at returning to neutral in rallies in return games and then building up good enough points to put pressure on his opponents.

Statistically, Korda has broken his opponents on hard court this season with a 30% clip – good for Dimitrov’s 18%.

I take the little favorite for a nice price in this one.

Choice: Korda ML (-135 via FanDuel)

Cameron Norrie (-1000) vs. Radu Albot (+600)

11:00 p.m. ET

At first glance, the money market markets in this competition seem outrageous. Even the spread that sits at -5.5 is eye-watering and will likely require an easy straight-set win to cash in. Still, the total stands at an enticing 19.5 games, which Cameron Norrie should be able to handle given the conditions in Los Cabos.

We know the Brit prefers slower hard courts, and there are probably none slower than the one in Baja California. The fact that this tournament is played locally only in the evening/night also contributes to slower conditions.

Norrie has absolutely dominated opponents at this venue, dating back to his title here in 2021. He has played no more than 16 games in a match at this venue in any of his last four games.

In fact, most of his matches have been on slow hard courts that have seen him win – but exceed the number – against the likes of Reilly Opelka, John Isner, Stefanos Tsitsipas or Sebastian Korda. The common theme of those four? They are all very long and can find a ton of free points with their serves (and plus-one forehands).

With Radu Albot on the other side of the net, Norrie is in a much better situation for his dominant victories over the likes of Chun-Hsin Tseng (in his first match), Brandon Nakashima, Taylor Fritz or Ernesto Escobedo (his last three wins). in last year’s edition of this event).

I take the under here and trust Norrie to keep rolling on an event where he thrives.

Choice: Games under 19.5 (+104 via DraftKings)

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